Market Trends
Monthly Market Report
My company compiles a monthly market report for all of Western North Carolina from the MLS providing detail for each county near Asheville (Haywood County is shown separately). One chart in this report shows you by county the number of homes sold and the average home selling price comparing 2009 to 2010. Of great interest are the housing supply vs demand charts. These charts indicate by price range how many months it would take to absorb all of the listings in a particular price range. In other words, based on the current rate of sales per month, if you have a home listed in the $200,000-$299,999 price range in Buncombe County, it could take 17.7 months to sell that home. An implication of these numbers is that home prices will be flat or possibly decline more. A similar report exists for lots. As you can see the situation for vacant lots is gloomier than for existing homes. It is difficult to get construction loans these days.
The last page of the report includes data that only my company provides....a comparison of original list price to sold price. Other companies will give you the last list price to sold price. This data illustrates the importance of pricing the house correctly to ensure a timely sale.
If you are a seller, you want to find ways to make your home stand out from the rest through aggressive marketing and appropriate pricing. Check out the "For Sellers" section for more information.
PMI Economic Real Estate Trends
This highly-cited report projects that the U.S. recession may continue to depress housing prices nationally through the end of 2010. As many as 374 of the nation's 381 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) - or 98 percent - are now facing increased risk of lower home prices at year-end 2010. However, 212 of the nation's MSAs still had a minimal-to-low risk of lower prices in two years. Asheville now falls in the high risk category (it was in the "elevated" category last quarter) which means that prices may continue to decline. There was been a 10% decline from 2007 to 2008. Housing is still less affordable now than it was in 1995, but is getting much closer.
[To read the latest PMI ERET report, click here . To compare Asheville to other cities, look at the 5-page table here . Asheville is shown on lower half of page 2.]
The PMI report also indicates that 28 (as opposed to 21 last report) of the nation's 50 largest MSAs are now in the highest risk category, signifying the highest probability of lower house prices by the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, relative to the first quarter of 2009. Over the past several quarters, PMI has seen the risk rising fastest in the large urban centers across the country, while smaller MSAs have faired relatively better in their current and projected price performance.
As the recession deepened during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, increasing rates of unemployment and foreclosures continued to place downward pressure on house price appreciation, said David Berson, PMI's Chief Economist and Strategist. "Combined with upward movements in excess housing supply in many parts of the country, these deteriorating conditions are increasing risk of house price declines in the next two years." On the positive side, house prices are still declining, but at a slower rate. The market may be stabilizing.
PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index(SM) ranks the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. Risk scores translate directly into an estimated percentage risk that home prices will be lower in two years. The Risk Index uses economic, housing, and mortgage market factors (home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates, and foreclosure activity) to determine these probabilities.
